|
Post by martinsfp on Jul 8, 2020 22:08:33 GMT 1
|
|
|
Post by nic on Jul 8, 2020 22:53:20 GMT 1
Buses back into public ownership by the respective councils in the West Yorkshire area that are directly effected by this?
A joint venture by Leeds, Bradford, Calderdale & Kirklees council.
I would imagine if business picked up Stagecoach would love to have a slice of the West Yorkshire buses or could Transdev swallow such an operation?
|
|
|
Post by twansport on Jul 9, 2020 12:58:00 GMT 1
I can see Councils being very interested in the full operation and the bigger bus operators very interested in picking up areas/corridors that they would have moved on if First was not on them. Arriva and Transdev will be very quick to seize certain corridors if First falls over.
|
|
|
Post by martinsfp on Jul 9, 2020 17:52:22 GMT 1
It's not a clickbait title - there is a real risk, as reflected in the company's share price drop of more than 20% on the news. Now, long-term they could be fine if things start to get better. And even if they did cease trading, as others have said there would likely be interest from others in picking up a lot of the lost routes. BUT: if they ceased trading while passenger numbers were still way below half their normal levels (and we don't truly know when things will pick up in that regard - this virus could be around for a long time), the idea of anyone wanting to invest in running anything more than a skeleton service seems unlikely to me.
|
|
deerfold
Forum Member
Posts: 2,297
Member is Online
|
Post by deerfold on Jul 9, 2020 20:20:22 GMT 1
Seems rather odd that Transdev could sit there and make statements like this Statements like what?
|
|
|
Post by dwarfer1979 on Jul 10, 2020 8:54:25 GMT 1
It's not a clickbait title - there is a real risk, as reflected in the company's share price drop of more than 20% on the news. Now, long-term they could be fine if things start to get better. And even if they did cease trading, as others have said there would likely be interest from others in picking up a lot of the lost routes. BUT: if they ceased trading while passenger numbers were still way below half their normal levels (and we don't truly know when things will pick up in that regard - this virus could be around for a long time), the idea of anyone wanting to invest in running anything more than a skeleton service seems unlikely to me. I am always a little wary of relying on the share price fluctuations to give a clear view of a businesses viability, the city rarely takes a long term view over short-term income and they have shown even less understanding of the public transport sector and the relative merits of the various groups. That said there issues for and around First, the disruption of COVID will have delayed the announced sale of various parts of the business, the US arm in particular, which was intended to raise funds and remove a less promising prospect - again at least a hit to the short term financial position. First were probably the weakest of the big groups financially before all this kicked off, they were at the start of a restructuring exercise which hasn't had a chance to bear fruit leaving the business more vulnerable in the longer term if recovery is slow. With the government moves to support both bus & train should have helped stabilise First short-term, there should be no losses in the rail sector as they are on management contracts not franchises with premium, whilst buses are receiving support but I'm less sure how that will cover endemic losses. The bus support is not intended to allow operators to make extra profits during this period so any excess money is reclaimed by the government - they are checking operators income & accounts from the COVID period to the same period last year to ensure that the businesses are no better off, how that will cope with a business that was losing money last year is unclear (are they held to the same loss as last year or are they lifted to break even through the support to avoid a collapse caused by cumulative losses?). Given First were in a weaker position they will naturally have a more pessimistic opinion than other operators about the outlook and as a quoted company effectively making a statement to the city there is a requirement for them to avoid giving misleadingly optimistic outlook if the future is uncertain. If First did fail I could see a lot of larger, or even medium sized, competing operators who would like to pick up these networks 'on the cheap' so you wouldn't see big holes left in the medium term. In any case it is unlikely the government could afford to let such major networks just collapse at this time as the normal rapid replacement that you would expect away from COVID would be harder to complete as quickly with staff working from home and social distancing making everything more complicated. Legislation does not yet allow councils in England to buy & run operators and franchising could not be set up that quickly so some sort of bridging loan from the government to keep the business running would be needed, undoubtably it should be tied to recovering the amount from assets or income from selling off parts of the business as the transition was managed (either allowing a franchising scheme to be run up or legislation to be changed to allow Local Authorities to buy & operate a bus company, at least 'in extremis'). It could offer an opportunity to try franchising but there are surprisingly few areas where First are a monopoly of any area to not have to deal with successful commercial operators networks who may not be as easy to bring - Leeds & Bradfords local networks are one where there are few other operators if you don't include routes coming in from neighbouring areas, Bristol being another potential area with limited competing commercial networks.
|
|
|
Post by Jagga on Jul 26, 2020 19:41:52 GMT 1
The Media/Newspaper are not reporting accurately. Yes First Group have made a loss but they are looking to sell of the American Greyhound business which is causing the loss when time permits. Read their Full Year Report.
|
|